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Last Updated on October 29, 2023
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Intro
In this post, I will try to explore the implications these state assembly elections can have over the general elections next year. On October 9th, the Election Commission announced the Schedule for the Assembly elections in the 5 states.
Mizoram on Nov. 7;
Madhya Pradesh on Nov. 17;
Chhattisgarh on Nov. 7 and 17 in two phases;
Rajasthan on Nov. 23;
Telangana on Nov. 30;
Counting of votes for all five States on December 3;
Morale
Every party contesting in these elections intends to win if they want to boost the morale of the party members. Who knows! Some party members might have done some match-fixing behind the scenes. Maybe, they are standing for an election to divide the votes and take some votes from a potential winning candidate. But, this is at the candidate level, not at the party level. No party can afford to fund a candidate who wants to lose.
Many local parties are contesting in these elections mainly BRS(previously TRS) in Telangana and MNF and ZPM in Mizoram. BSP and RLP(Rashtriya Loktantrik Party) in Rajasthan. and Many other local parties are contesting in these 2 states and others. But, they are not going to win. There are higher chance of winning 1 Crore rupees in KBC. I see them as running for elections not to win but to get back their deposit amount.
BRS, formerly TRS, wanted to start an alliance led by them to fight in the general elections. Maybe, KCR wanted to run as the prime minister candidate from the alliance. So, the party held a huge public meeting inviting other local parties to join. The meeting was attended by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann, his Kerala counterpart Pinarayi Vijayan, and CPI General Secretary D Raja. But, after Congress’s huge victory in the Karnataka assembly election, they all joined the I.N.D.I.A except BRS. Congress’s win was a morale booster for these parties.
Since KCR’s party didn’t join the I.N.D.I.A. and every other party left them, the BRS must have been feeling very lonely since then.
When it can boost the morale of other parties to join the alliance, it can boost the morale of the party workers for the general election.
Welfare schemes on trial
Rahul Gandhi is saying in interviews that Congress is testing different government schemes in different states. Increased MSP for Paddy in Chhattisgarh, Health Insurance with coverage up to 25 Lakhs in Rajasthan and Social Security schemes in Karnataka are some of the schemes he frequently cites.
Karnataka finished with the polls in May 2023. But, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are going to polls now.
In the same way, BJP’s ruled state of Madhya Pradesh is no different. The BJP government has announced the Ladli Behan Scheme to provide eligible women with 1250 Rs a month and a Gas Cylinder at 450 Rs. Congress has countered the offer with 1500 Rs a month. The Gas subsidy was a response to Congress’s poll promise to make cylinders available at 500 Rs. The Centre also, before 5 states went to polls, increased the subsidy given under the Ujwala Scheme to 300 Rs.
Welfare schemes or allegedly “Rewdies” have become very controversial. BJP was very hard against welfare schemes/rowdies. It seems like the BJP decided to embrace some of them when it lost Karnataka to the Congress’s 5 Guarantees. They are very popular doesn’t matter whether the state can afford them or not.
In the state of Telangana, the two main contenders – BRS and Congress have their own set of Welfare schemes as poll promises. In the last 10 years, BRS being in power, has been undertaking welfare schemes in the state like Rytha Bandu – 10,000 Rs per acre per year to farmers. The poll-bound state now witnesses an array of Welfare schemes promised by both BRS and Congress.
Congress has made 6 Guarantees as poll promises. 3 of them were targeting Senior citizens, Women and Youth. Another guarantee is a counter-offer against BRS’s Rytha Bandu. In its manifesto, BRS didn’t shy away from making more promises about a new set of welfare schemes realising Congress is going to have a long list of welfare schemes after the Karnataka assembly election. Elections are not all about poll promises; there are factors too like Anti-incumbency, Candidates etc. But, to some extent, in Telangana, it turned out to be a fight between 2 sets of welfare schemes.
In Rajasthan, Congress, which is doing very poorly in opinion polls, has made 7 guarantees. So many guarantees! One of them must be a stable government and to end the in-fighting between Gehlot and Pilot. All jokes aside, one of the guarantees is to buy the cow dung at 2 Rs per kg. Now, no politician has to worry about illegally making and safely keeping Crores and Crores of rupees from ED and IT. They can pile up cash by selling tons and tons of what they skillfully produce when they open their mouth – “Bullshit”.
Narratives
It is during the election campaign that Politicians, Media spokespersons and Social Media managers can try out and understand what messages stick and what don’t. If they don’t stick, they will learn how to give it a new spin or polish them until they stick or drop the message altogether and go with something else. They get to learn how to craft a message and test it before a bigger event like the general elections next year. This gives a nice opportunity for the politicians to hone their rhetorical skills. It is like a practice match or playoffs before the Semi-finals and Finals.
If Congress wins in its ruling states like Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh, it can say that people like the governance of the Congres so they voted Congress back to power. This is a pro-congress narrative. If Congress wins in other states ruled by BJP, BRS and MNF, then it will say people didn’t like the governance of other parties, especially BJP and its allied parties. This is both Anti-bjp/opposition parties and pro-congress narrative. This is like hitting two birds with one stone; both positive and negative narratives at the same time.
As a Corollary, from BJP’s perspective, if it wins in Madhya Pradesh, the party can claim that people like BJP’s rule as they have done for the last 20 years under Shivraj Singh Chauhan except for a small gap of 15 months under Congres rule. This narrative might not be very powerful because Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s government is facing some anti-incumbency. BJP is very much aware of the anti-incumbency. This explains why the party has fielded 8 MPs in the election, including 3 incumbent central ministers.
If the BJP wins in Chhattisgarh or Rajasthan then it can say that people were fed up with Congress’s rule. This is both anti-congress and pro-BJP narrative. So, winning in non-ruling states is more effective in sending a message for next year’s general election.
Another advantage to Congress, if it wins in Madhya Pradesh, is that it can say that the people of the state don’t like to be ruled by a government that has been formed by unethically bringing down the previous government by poaching/purchasing MLAs. The party doesn’t have to wait till it wins. If it wants to gain some sympathy votes, it can use this narrative before the election as it did in Karnataka. I am pretty sure it is doing it as I write this article.
Let’s say, Congress manages to perform well among Hindi heartland states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan(looking at the pre-polls most likely it won’t). Then, the party can say that it is powerful in the Hindi Belt region as well. This goes for the BJP as well. BJP is already in power in UP and MP.
I don’t have to say anything about BJP’s most common narrative – Hindutva and Nationalism. Everyone knows what they are. Even Congress has realized that they cannot win elections without catering to Hindu voters. So, the party started to adopt so-called “Soft-Hindutva” narratives. The BJP government may be building the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, but the Congress has revamped the Kaushalya temple, the mother of Lord Ram and is developing 9 sites along the trail of Ram Van Gaman Path in Chhattisgarh. To top it off, Congress’s Chhattisgarh also organized a three-day Ramayana national festival.
The BJP’s counter-narrative could not be worse. The BJP’s response is that Lord Ram never walked through the state. Whether the Ram walked through or not, Even whether Ram really existed or not – doesn’t matter. What matters is what people believe and people hold Lord Ram very close to their hearts. The BJP’s narrative will only result in pushing people away from its party.
There is another narrative the Congress can build within I.N.D.I.A while seat sharing. If Congress does better in these 5 states, then Congress can stake a claim that they should get more seats in these states.
Resources
Politics has become a Business in many aspects. As any business, politics too need capital. Who gets the return on investment is another matter, but it is usually the ones who have invested the capital. For general elections next year, we can try to see this from 2 parties’ perspectives BJP and Congress.
We all know that no party is clean. The word on the street is that you need at least 30 Crore Rupees to win an election for an MLA seat in Karnataka. They say that it is less corrupt in North Indian states, but caste plays a huge role.
According to a report by the Association for Democratic Reforms, the richest political party is BJP with assets worth Rs 6,064 cr growing by 21.17 % in 2021-22 and the Congress is far behind at Rs 805.68 crore up by 16.58 % in the same year.
It is common sense that whoever comes to power in these states has access to the state’s resources. It looks like the Congress, which is fighting the deep-pocketed BJP, needs it very badly. If the BJP gets its hand on these resources, the situation will be even more difficult for Congress and I.N.D.I.A.
Though, there are other parties in the I.N.D.IA, but there is no motivation for them to spend it outside the state where they hold power. TMC and CPI(M) have assets worth 458.10 crore and 735.77 crore respectively. Why would these parties agree to spend more money outside their state where they will less likely to win? So, if Congress wants to lead the alliance, it also has to increase its financial resources to fund the candidates, not necessarily from Congress but from the alliance, who need financial support to win the election.
Even if Congress wins in all 5 states, its financial strength will not come close to that of the BJP. But, if the BJP wins in 5 states or doesn’t let Congress win in any of the states, Congress/I.N.D.I.A has to scrape every penny to put up a good fight against the BJP.
A Caveat
This doesn’t mean that people will vote for the same party in the Parliamentary election that they will be voting for in the assembly election in these 5 states. People vote differently for different elections. For example, the BJP almost swept the Congress-ruling states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka in the 2019 Lokasabha elections.
